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TruRanking

NCAA Men's Basketball Ratings & Predictions

For information contact: info@truranking.com

NCAA Tournament Projection (TruBrackets)

Updated: 6/24/2026

TruBrackets is an automated bracketology tool that projects the NCAA Tournament Field of 68 based on TruRanking's efficiency ratings. The bracket updates daily throughout the season as game results are processed and team ratings shift.

Selection Methodology & How to Read the Bracket

How the Field Is Selected

TruBrackets identifies one Automatic Qualifier (AQ) from each of the 31 Division I conferences, selecting the highest-rated team in each league as the projected conference champion. The remaining 37 spots are filled with at-large bids, chosen by taking the next-best available teams by overall TruRanking rating, regardless of conference affiliation. This mirrors the Selection Committee's emphasis on team quality, strength of schedule, and resume depth.

Seeding and Region Assignment

Once the 68-team field is set, seeds 1 through 16 are assigned in each of the four regions based on overall rating rank. The top four teams receive No. 1 seeds, the next four receive No. 2 seeds, and so on. Region placement considers geographic balance where possible. The First Four matchups pit the last four at-large selections and the lowest-rated automatic qualifiers against each other for the right to enter the main bracket.

Bubble Watch

The Bubble Watch section highlights the teams on the edge of selection. The Last Four In are the final at-large teams that made the projected field, while the First Four Out are the next-best teams that just missed. These lists change frequently as games are played and ratings shift, making them essential viewing during the final weeks of the regular season and conference tournament play.

Projected Field Summary (Seed & Bubble Data)

This projection is automatically generated using TruRanking's proprietary predictive ratings. It identifies Automatic Qualifiers from every Division I conference and selects the best At-Large candidates.

#1 Seeds

  • Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten) - Rating: 92.3
  • Arizona Wildcats (Big 12) - Rating: 90.5
  • Duke Blue Devils (ACC) - Rating: 85.7
  • Florida Gators (SEC) - Rating: 79.7

#2 Seeds

  • Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten) - Rating: 76.8
  • Houston Cougars (Big 12) - Rating: 75.2
  • Iowa State Cyclones (Big 12) - Rating: 75.2
  • St. John's Red Storm (Big East) - Rating: 68.7

Last 4 In

  • Texas A&M Aggies (SEC) - Rating: 44.6
  • Cincinnati Bearcats (Big 12) - Rating: 44.2
  • Clemson Tigers (ACC) - Rating: 43.6
  • Dayton Flyers (Atlantic 10) - Rating: 42.8

Last 4 to Skip First Four

  • NC State Wolfpack (ACC) - Rating: 46.9
  • TCU Horned Frogs (Big 12) - Rating: 46.1
  • Santa Clara Broncos (West Coast) - Rating: 45.1
  • Oklahoma Sooners (SEC) - Rating: 45.0

First 4 Out

  • Florida State Seminoles (ACC) - Rating: 41.6
  • SMU Mustangs (ACC) - Rating: 41.6
  • San Diego State Aztecs (Mountain West) - Rating: 41.4
  • West Virginia Mountaineers (Big 12) - Rating: 39.7
View Full Field List
  1. Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten) - AQ
  2. Arizona Wildcats (Big 12) - AQ
  3. Duke Blue Devils (ACC) - AQ
  4. Florida Gators (SEC) - AQ
  5. Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten) - AL
  6. Houston Cougars (Big 12) - AL
  7. Iowa State Cyclones (Big 12) - AL
  8. St. John's Red Storm (Big East) - AQ
  9. UConn Huskies (Big East) - AL
  10. Purdue Boilermakers (Big Ten) - AL
  11. Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten) - AL
  12. Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC) - AL
  13. Tennessee Volunteers (SEC) - AL
  14. Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast) - AQ
  15. Arkansas Razorbacks (SEC) - AL
  16. Vanderbilt Commodores (SEC) - AL
  17. Louisville Cardinals (ACC) - AL
  18. Virginia Cavaliers (ACC) - AL
  19. South Florida Bulls (AAC) - AQ
  20. Saint Mary's Gaels (West Coast) - AL
  21. Utah State Aggies (Mountain West) - AQ
  22. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Big Ten) - AL
  23. North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC) - AL
  24. Iowa Hawkeyes (Big Ten) - AL
  25. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big 12) - AL
  26. Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10) - AQ
  27. Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten) - AL
  28. Kansas Jayhawks (Big 12) - AL
  29. VCU Rams (Atlantic 10) - AL
  30. Miami Hurricanes (ACC) - AL
  31. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC) - AL
  32. Texas Longhorns (SEC) - AL
  33. BYU Cougars (Big 12) - AL
  34. Kentucky Wildcats (SEC) - AL
  35. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten) - AL
  36. UCLA Bruins (Big Ten) - AL
  37. Auburn Tigers (SEC) - AL
  38. New Mexico Lobos (Mountain West) - AL
  39. NC State Wolfpack (ACC) - AL
  40. TCU Horned Frogs (Big 12) - AL
  41. Santa Clara Broncos (West Coast) - AL
  42. Oklahoma Sooners (SEC) - AL
  43. Texas A&M Aggies (SEC) - AL
  44. Cincinnati Bearcats (Big 12) - AL
  45. Clemson Tigers (ACC) - AL
  46. Dayton Flyers (Atlantic 10) - AL
  47. Yale Bulldogs (Ivy) - AQ
  48. McNeese Cowboys (SLC) - AQ
  49. High Point Panthers (BSC) - AQ
  50. Akron Zips (MAC) - AQ
  51. Northern Iowa Panthers (Missouri Valley) - AQ
  52. Hofstra Pride (CAA) - AQ
  53. Utah Valley Wolverines (WAC) - AQ
  54. UC Irvine Anteaters (Big West) - AQ
  55. Wright State Raiders (HL) - AQ
  56. Troy Trojans (Sun Belt) - AQ
  57. Howard Bison (MEAC) - AQ
  58. Kennesaw State Owls (Conference USA) - AQ
  59. St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies (SUM) - AQ
  60. Furman Paladins (Southern) - AQ
  61. Central Arkansas Bears (ASUN) - AQ
  62. Navy Midshipmen (PL) - AQ
  63. Tennessee State Tigers (Ohio Valley) - AQ
  64. Siena Saints (MAAC) - AQ
  65. UMBC Retrievers (America East) - AQ
  66. Montana State Bobcats (Big Sky) - AQ
  67. Long Island University Sharks (Northeast) - AQ
  68. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats (SWAC) - AQ
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