TruRanking

Monte Carlo Methodology

In each simulation, every tournament game is resolved by converting the TruRanking rating differential between the two teams into a win probability using a logistic model. A random number draw then determines the winner, and the bracket advances round by round until a champion is crowned. By repeating this process thousands of times, we generate stable probability estimates for each team reaching the Round of 32, Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four, Championship Game, and winning it all.

Understanding the Probabilities

Championship odds represent the percentage of simulations in which a given team won the title. A team listed at 12% means they won the championship in roughly 1,200 out of 10,000 simulations. Advancement probabilities for earlier rounds will always be higher, since teams must survive each preceding round. These probabilities account for the actual bracket matchups, not just overall team quality, so a strong team in a difficult region may have lower odds than a similarly-rated team in an easier draw.

Matchup Calculator

The head-to-head matchup calculator lets you select any two tournament teams and see the projected win probability for a hypothetical neutral-site game between them. This is based on the same rating differential and logistic model used in the full bracket simulation, providing a quick way to evaluate specific potential matchups.

Simulation Modes

Before Selection Sunday, simulations use the TruBrackets projected bracket. After the official bracket is released, simulations switch to the real matchups. During the tournament, completed games are locked in and only remaining matchups are simulated, so probabilities update in real time as the bracket unfolds.